Weekly Markets Notes

Weekly Notes · August 2 – August 9, 2026 WEEKLY MARKET INTELLIGENCE ISSUE DATE · AUGUST 9, 2026 FOR INFORMATIONAL USE ONLY ℹ️ NOT FOR FINANCIAL ADVICE — FOR INFORMATIONAL AND ENTERTAINMENT USE ONLY S&P 500 DOW NASDAQ BRENT CRUDE 10-YR YIELD 30-YR YIELD 7,757.64 ▲ 3.6% WK · RECORD 54,036.93 ▲ 3.0% WK 26,690.62 ▲ 5.2% WK ~$83 ▼ ≈8% WK 4.64% ▼ From 4.75% 5.19% ▼ Still above 5% Weekly Overview · August 2 – August 9, 2026 The best week since April, and it came from the two places nobody could model. First, Iran. Trump said Sunday that talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would begin Monday; Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC on Tuesday a deal could land "today or tomorrow." Crude collapsed roughly 8% on the week, and equities took off — the Dow set records on three consecutive sessions. Then, Friday, the July jobs report showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs against expectations of an 83,000 gain, with May and June revised down a combined 103,000. Ordinarily a payroll contraction is bad news. In a market that spent late July pricing a Fed hike , it was the best news available: yields fell across the curve, September hike odds dropped to about 42%, and the S&P 500 closed at a record. That is the setup going into next week's CPI print — a rally built on the idea that inflation risk has passed, resting on a labor market that just contracted. ⏱ ESTIMATED READING TIME: 8–9 MINUTES Headline 01 of 05 — Hormuz Talks Collapse the Oil Risk Premium Geopolitics · Energy · Strait of Hormuz · US–Iran Negotiations The week's entire opening act was diplomatic. President Trump said on Sunday, August 2 that talks with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping would begin the following day. Crude sold off violently on Monday: Brent fell more than 7% in early trade before settling around $83.51, down 5.09%, while WTI dropped 5.67% to $79.87. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that a deal granting freedom of movement through the strait could come "as soon as…